Ethiopia’s Army Chief Blames Egypt and Sudan for Backing Rebel Alliance Amid Renewed Civil War

Key points

• Field Marshal Birhanu Jula accused Egypt and Sudan of supplying and supporting the 'Alliance for Survival,' a coalition of seven armed groups including the TPLF and Oromo Liberation Army, aiming to remove Abiy Ahmed.
• Jula also blamed Eritrea for acting as a link between foreign backers and internal rebels, a claim Asmara has repeatedly denied.
• Fighting has spread from Tigray into the Afar and Amhara regions, with the army claiming it killed 272 Tigrayan fighters in a recent counter-offensive in North Wollo.
• The conflict is exacerbated by a dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), with Egypt rejecting Ethiopia’s claim of national sovereignty over the dam.
• The African Union and UN have called for an immediate ceasefire, but the 2022 Pretoria Agreement is under severe strain due to unresolved issues regarding disarmament, governance, and territorial disputes in western Tigray.

Background

This escalation follows the formation of the 'Alliance for Survival' in late September 2026, which united former enemies like the TPLF and Fano militia. The conflict marks a significant breakdown of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended a brutal two-year civil war in Tigray. Previous tensions were heightened by drone strikes and the seizure of airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire by Tigrayan forces.

How outlets are covering it

Euronews highlights the diplomatic dimension, noting Jula’s accusations against Egypt and Sudan without providing evidence, while Egypt and Sudan have not publicly responded. Al Jazeera emphasizes the military aspect, with the army claiming 'strategic calm' and reporting heavy TPLF casualties, while the TPLF describes the situation as a 'full war.' BBC provides a broader historical context, detailing the unresolved issues from the Pretoria Agreement, such as the status of western Tigray and disarmament, which have fueled the current crisis. The Jerusalem Post focuses on the humanitarian impact, reporting that approximately 20 Israelis are trapped in Lalibela due to grounded flights and closed roads.

Why it matters

The resurgence of conflict threatens to reignite a full-scale civil war in Ethiopia, potentially drawing in neighboring countries like Eritrea and Sudan. The instability also jeopardizes regional stability in the Horn of Africa and complicates diplomatic efforts over the GERD, which is crucial for water security in Egypt and Sudan.

What to watch

The African Union and UN are urging an immediate ceasefire and renewed talks, but trust between the parties is extremely low. The future of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement is uncertain, and the conflict may spread further into other regions, potentially leading to a wider regional conflict.