The Ongoing Conflict in Ukraine: A Perpetual Struggle

The war in Ukraine may be a long one as Russia's attacks on Ukrainian cities continue and Ukraine's counteroffensive progresses slowly. Ukrainian officials define victory as regaining all of their territory and holding Russia accountable for war crimes, while Russian officials seek a Ukraine beholden to Russia and a West that accepts its influence. Despite Western support for Ukraine, the odds of Ukraine rapidly liberating all of its territory by force remain low. Both sides are building up forces for future campaigns, and the conflict is likely to continue with small territorial gains and no clear military dominance. The Western allies aim to weaken Russia militarily, prevent further aggression, and avoid direct military confrontation. Russia's war aims align with its foreign policy concept of countering US power and reshaping the global order. Moscow's rhetoric has evolved to portray the war as an existential battle against NATO. Moscow's decision to wage war seems to have backfired, as it has faced fierce resistance, Ukrainian success on the battlefield, and the strengthening of NATO's resolve.