Aramco Halts European Crude as Houthi Control of Bab al-Mandeb Tests US Security Guarantees

Key points

• Saudi Aramco halted crude deliveries to at least two European refiners after a drone attack damaged the East-West pipeline, which carries 4-5 million barrels per day.
• Houthi forces have taken control of the Bab al-Mandeb strait, including the port of Mocha and Perim Island, threatening 10-12% of global oil flows.
• Oil prices exceeded $107 per barrel, with US gasoline prices rising by 35%, as markets react to simultaneous disruptions at both Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz.
• President Trump stated in Dublin that the Houthis 'called us' and are allowing ships to pass, refusing direct military intervention to avoid a new front during the US-Iran conflict.
• Saudi Arabia announced a 14-state multinational defensive maritime alliance, including Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt, to fill the perceived US security vacuum.
• Riyadh has declared it will not bear sole responsibility for global oil supply disruptions, shifting the burden of maritime security to a 'collective responsibility' model.

Background

This development follows a series of Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure in September 2026, including a drone strike on the East-West pipeline that temporarily halted 4-5% of global supply. Earlier reports indicated that Saudi crude exports to Asia had dropped from 3.4 million barrels per day in June to 128,000 in August before partially recovering. The current halt to European shipments represents the latest escalation in a conflict that has seen oil prices fluctuate between $98 and $108 per barrel over the past month.

How outlets are covering it

AP News frames the situation as a market-rattling crisis driven by a week of Houthi attacks that threaten Saudi oil infrastructure, emphasizing the immediate economic impact on global markets. In contrast, Al Jazeera provides a broader geopolitical analysis, arguing that Trump's refusal to intervene marks a fundamental shift in the US-Gulf 'security-for-oil' relationship. Al Jazeera highlights that Washington is prioritizing the Strait of Hormuz and domestic electoral concerns over Gulf security, while AP focuses on the immediate supply chain disruptions. Both sources agree that the US is not currently prepared to engage in direct military action against the Houthis, but Al Jazeera interprets this as a structural retreat from security commitments, whereas AP presents it as a tactical decision amid ongoing conflicts.

Why it matters

The halt in Aramco's European shipments and the Houthi control of Bab al-Mandeb threaten to disrupt a quarter of global oil supplies if combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This instability undermines the 'security-for-oil' bargain that has underpinned global energy markets since the 1970s, forcing Gulf states to diversify security partnerships and potentially leading to a new era of multipolar regional security. For global economies, the resulting 'risk premium' on oil prices could trigger inflationary pressures and supply shortages, challenging the stability of the international energy system.

What to watch

Saudi Arabia is expected to deepen its defense ties with Turkey and Pakistan and formalize the 14-nation maritime alliance to protect shipping routes. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is set to visit Cairo to coordinate with Egypt on Red Sea security. Meanwhile, the US will likely continue to avoid direct military engagement in Yemen, focusing instead on the Strait of Hormuz, while Saudi Arabia may further restrict oil exports or raise prices to reflect the increased security costs borne by Riyadh.