Indonesia’s El Niño-Driven Haze Crisis Reaches Peak Toxicity as Rain Offers Limited Relief

Key points

• PM2.5 levels in parts of Indonesia have exceeded 1,000 micrograms per cubic meter, more than 65 times the WHO safe limit.
• The fires have released an estimated 175 million tonnes of carbon, equivalent to three-quarters of Indonesia’s annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions.
• Singapore’s air pollution reached its highest level since 2015, prompting officials to consider a joint task force with Indonesia to combat illegal burning.
• More than 283,000 respiratory illness cases have been reported in seven Indonesian provinces as of October 13, more than double the count in early September.
• Rainfall is expected to increase in December, but peat fires may reignite if the dry season returns, as seen in 1997-1998.

Background

This crisis follows a pattern of severe haze events in Southeast Asia, with previous major incidents occurring in 2015 and 2019. The current event is exacerbated by a 'super' El Niño, which has intensified drought conditions. Indonesia has previously struggled with peatland fires, which are difficult to extinguish and release ancient carbon stored in the soil. The region has seen progress in fire management and peatland re-wetting, but the 2026 El Niño has reversed these gains.

How outlets are covering it

NBC News emphasizes the human impact, highlighting the suffering of residents in Kalimantan and the diplomatic friction between Indonesia and Singapore. The Conversation focuses on the environmental and scientific aspects, noting the extreme PM2.5 levels and the release of centuries of stored carbon from peat fires. The Spokesman-Review highlights the potential for relief from upcoming rains, but also warns of the risk of reignition if the dry season returns. All sources agree on the severity of the crisis and the need for better fire management and peatland restoration.

Why it matters

The crisis has significant health, environmental, and economic implications. The toxic smog has caused widespread respiratory illnesses and disrupted daily life in Southeast Asia. The release of 175 million tonnes of carbon contributes to climate change, while the fires have impacted agricultural productivity, particularly in the palm oil industry. Diplomatic tensions between Indonesia and its neighbors could escalate if the situation is not resolved, and the long-term environmental damage from peat fires could have lasting consequences.

What to watch

Rainfall is expected to increase in December, which may help extinguish the fires, but there is a risk of reignition if the dry season returns. Indonesia is establishing a new national peatland and mangrove management agency to restore drained peatlands and reduce future fire risks. Singapore and Indonesia are considering a joint task force to combat illegal burning, and Singapore may pursue legal action against companies linked to the fires. The situation will likely remain tense until the fires are fully extinguished and the region recovers from the haze.