China's Vulnerability: The Indian Ocean and a Potential Taiwan Conflict

The vulnerability of Chinese oil tankers in the Indian Ocean is being scrutinized by Western military and academic strategists as they consider potential scenarios of conflict with China over Taiwan or elsewhere in East Asia. Chinese naval vessels lack air support and would be effectively trapped in the Indian Ocean, making them vulnerable to interdiction operations, blockades, or capture in a full-scale war. This vulnerability gives China's adversaries escalatory options and raises the costs of military action, potentially dissuading China from launching an invasion of Taiwan. However, it remains unclear how this vulnerability affects Beijing's calculations regarding Taiwan. China's limited military presence and lack of bases in the Indian Ocean further compound its challenges in protecting vital trade routes and energy supplies.