China's Vulnerability: The Indian Ocean and a Potential Taiwan Conflict

The vulnerability of Chinese oil tankers in the Indian Ocean is being scrutinized by Western military and academic strategists as they consider potential scenarios of conflict with China over Taiwan or elsewhere in East Asia. Chinese naval vessels lack air support and would be effectively trapped in the Indian Ocean, making them vulnerable to interdiction operations, blockades, or capture in a full-scale war. This vulnerability gives China's adversaries escalatory options and raises the costs of military action, potentially dissuading China from launching an invasion of Taiwan. However, China is aware of this weakness and is gradually expanding its deployments and basing options to strengthen its position in the Indian Ocean.