Netanyahu and Trump suffer dual defeats as US voters reject Iran war and Israel faces coalition deadlock

Key points

• US Democrats won control of both the House and Senate, marking a historic repudiation of Trump’s policies, particularly the Iran war and military aid to Israel.
• Netanyahu’s Likud bloc won only 53 seats in Israel’s October 27 election, falling short of the 61 needed to form a government, while Arab-led parties secured a record 19 seats.
• Trump publicly suggested the US would end its $3.8 billion annual military aid to Israel after 2026, a move analysts view as an attempt to appease angry US voters.
• Netanyahu has refused to accept the Israeli election results, alleging foreign interference and threatening to block certification, mirroring his 2020 US election response.
• Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot faces a difficult path to power, as forming a government without Arab support is politically toxic, yet a coalition with Netanyahu is currently rejected by both sides.

Background

This development follows weeks of intense scrutiny over the October 27 Israeli election, where Netanyahu’s Likud party alleged widespread fraud by Arab-led parties, including alleged Qatari funding. Despite investigations by the Mossad and Shin Bet, the Central Elections Committee certified the results, confirming the 53-48 split between Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot. The current crisis is the culmination of a year-long alliance between Netanyahu and Trump, which included a joint military campaign against Iran in February 2026, a move that significantly raised energy prices and fueled anti-war sentiment in the US.

How outlets are covering it

Al Jazeera emphasizes the 'seismic shift' in US-Israel relations, noting that polling shows a majority of Americans view Israel’s influence on the Iran war as a primary reason for their vote. The outlet highlights Netanyahu’s refusal to accept the Israeli results and his threats to block certification as a sign of deepening political instability. In contrast, Diari ARA focuses on the immediate political mechanics in Israel, arguing that Trump may act as a 'referee' to force a unity coalition between Netanyahu and Eisenkot to avoid new elections. While Al Jazeera views the US aid cut as a potential long-term strategic shift, Diari ARA suggests Trump’s comments may be a tactical move to manage domestic anger, with the future of US-Israel ties remaining uncertain due to the lack of clarity on future weapon access.

Why it matters

The simultaneous electoral defeats of Trump and Netanyahu signal a fundamental realignment in US-Israel relations, potentially ending decades of unconditional support. The US withdrawal from the Senate and House could lead to reduced military aid and a shift in UN Security Council voting, while the Israeli political deadlock may force a fragile unity government or new elections, both of which could impact regional stability and the ongoing conflict with Iran.

What to watch

President Isaac Herzog will begin coalition consultations in Israel, potentially leading to a unity government or new elections. In the US, the new Democratic Congress will likely scrutinize the $3.8 billion military aid package and the Iran war. Trump may attempt to pressure Israeli leaders to form a stable government to avoid further political embarrassment, while Netanyahu will likely continue to challenge the election results and seek to maintain his influence despite his weakened position.