Xi’s Fifth Plenum Purges 33 Officials, Leaving PLA Leadership Decimated

Key points

• The CCP Fifth Plenum (Oct 26-29) confirmed the expulsion of 33 officials, including 16 military officers, leaving only 279 of the original 376 Central Committee members in attendance.
• The CMC now has only two members: Xi Jinping and newly appointed Politburo member Zhang Shengmin, the first PLA general promoted to the Politburo in 32 years.
• The PLA Navy conducted coordinated exercises through the Miyako and Osumi Straits since October 13, simulating the isolation of Taiwan and testing sustainment logistics for long-range surface combat.
• Pakistan briefly closed its airspace to Taiwanese aircraft, citing 'One China' policy, marking the first time a state has fully denied overflight access to Taiwan.
• Beijing accused the Philippines of manipulating ASEAN, sending only a defense attaché to the ADMM-Plus meeting to delegitimize the platform and stall South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations.

Background

This purge follows a broader anti-corruption campaign that has targeted Xi’s inner circle, including former aides and 'Shaanxi Gang' members. Recent archive items highlight ongoing cross-strait tensions, including a staged car attack on a comedian who mocked Xi and US naval incursions in the South China Sea. The current purge aims to consolidate control before the 2027 PLA centenary and the 21st National Party Congress.

How outlets are covering it

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasizes that the purge reflects Xi’s distrust of the military, reducing the likelihood of a Taiwan invasion due to inexperienced leadership. CNN frames the purge as a consolidation of power, noting that Xi’s authority is secure as rivals are eliminated, with attendance at the plenum at a historic low. Caixin Global focuses on the structural changes, noting that 10 civilian vacancies were filled while no military officers were appointed to the Central Committee, highlighting a shift in power dynamics. ISW and CNN agree on the scale of the purge but differ on its immediate strategic implication: ISW sees it as a deterrent to conflict, while CNN views it as a tool for long-term authoritarian consolidation.

Why it matters

The decimation of China’s military leadership creates a command vacuum that may delay major military operations but signals Xi’s intent to control the PLA before 2027. The simultaneous naval exercises and diplomatic pressure on Pakistan and ASEAN indicate Beijing is testing its ability to isolate Taiwan despite internal instability. This dual strategy of internal purging and external coercion aims to secure Xi’s fourth term while maintaining pressure on Taiwan and its allies.

What to watch

Watch for the appointment of new military leaders to fill the CMC and Central Committee vacancies. Monitor the outcome of the Taipei mayoral election, where DPP candidate Puma Shen is leading polls, as Beijing may intensify pressure on his supporters. Expect continued PLAN exercises through the first island chain and potential further diplomatic isolation of Taiwan via airspace restrictions in allied nations.