Xi’s US Visit Highlights China’s Role in Sustaining Iran Amid Leadership Vacuum

Key points

• Xi Jinping is in the US for a state visit, where US officials warned about China's 'dangerous alliance' with Iran, noting Beijing is 'keeping the Islamic Republic afloat' (The Independent).
• Iranian state media published a handwritten letter from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to IRGC commander Majid Mousavi, dated August 1, suggesting he survived the February attack on his father’s office (Iran International).
• Mojtaba Khamenei has not been publicly seen or heard since late February, leading to speculation about his health and actual control over the regime (Politico).
• Iranian hardliners are publicly discussing nuclear weapons and withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) ahead of President Pezeshkian’s UN speech (Iran International).
• US-Iran talks are intensifying in New York, with Trump expressing willingness to meet Pezeshkian, though tensions remain high (The Independent).

Background

This situation follows a 12-day US-Israeli war with Iran in February 2026, which resulted in the death of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Since then, Mojtaba Khamenei has assumed leadership but has remained hidden. Recent US-China tensions include allegations of Chinese support for Iran, including satellite imagery, and ongoing trade and AI competition. The UN General Assembly provides a backdrop for diplomatic maneuvers, with both US and Iranian officials seeking to manage the crisis.

How outlets are covering it

The Independent emphasizes the US warning about China’s 'dangerous alliance' with Iran during Xi’s visit, highlighting Beijing’s role in sustaining Tehran. Iran International focuses on the internal dynamics in Iran, including the publication of Khamenei’s letter and hardliners’ push for nuclear weapons, suggesting a shift in Iran’s strategic posture. Politico highlights the uncertainty around Mojtaba Khamenei’s status and the potential for the IRGC to gain more influence, questioning who is actually running Iran. Middle East Eye reports on the IRGC’s praise from Khamenei, reinforcing the military’s role in the regime. Overall, there is a consensus on the instability in Iran and the significance of China’s support, but outlets differ in their focus on internal vs. external factors.

Why it matters

The stability of Iran’s leadership and its alliance with China could significantly impact regional security and US foreign policy. The potential for nuclear escalation and the outcome of US-Iran talks in New York are critical to preventing further conflict. Additionally, the US-China relationship, strained by Iran and other issues, could have global implications for trade and technology.

What to watch

Watch for developments in US-Iran talks in New York, any public appearance or statement from Mojtaba Khamenei, and the outcome of Xi’s state visit, particularly regarding US-China relations and Iran. Monitor Iran’s stance on the NPT and nuclear weapons, as well as any further actions by hardliners.