"Prigozhin's Surrender and Putin's Calculations: Assessing the Fallout"

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal to allow Yevgeny Prigozhin and some of his Wagner group fighters to go to Belarus, after Prigozhin's mutiny threatened to plunge Russia into chaos. While Lukashenko seeks credit for stepping in and saving Russia, there are conflicting interests between him, Prigozhin, and Putin. Lukashenko wants to avoid Wagner's autonomy as they could turn against him, but also sees potential benefits in their experience. The presence of Wagner troops in Belarus could be used to defend Lukashenko against opposition forces. However, Lukashenko's long-term security is not guaranteed, and Belarus remains highly dependent on Russia. The relationship between Lukashenko and Prigozhin is not as close as claimed, and the presence of Wagner troops in Belarus may not pose a significant threat to NATO or Ukraine.