Center-2026 Drills: Russia Rehearses Offensive Into Central Asia with 47,000 Troops

Key points

• The exercises ran from September 28 to October 3, utilizing 11 training grounds and the Caspian Sea.
• Over 47,000 personnel, 2,000 pieces of equipment, 90 aircraft, and 77 vessels participated.
• The scenario involved repelling an attack in the South Urals before launching an offensive to liberate territory and create a security zone in adjacent land.
• Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian country sharing a land border with Russia and has access to the Caspian Sea, making it the likely target of the simulation.
• Chinese troops from the Central Theater Command participated, deploying Type 99A tanks and unmanned systems for reconnaissance and strikes.
• Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov confirmed that units not currently fighting in Ukraine participated, but the drills used battlefield experience from that conflict.

Background

Previous large-scale Russian exercises, such as Center-2019 and Center-2015, involved significantly larger troop counts, with 128,000 and 95,000 personnel respectively. In 2019, Russian forces practiced neutralizing a simulated state in southwestern Russia. Recent archive data indicates substantial Russian combat losses in Ukraine, with Ukrainian sources reporting over 1.49 million troops killed by September 2026, highlighting the ongoing intensity of the conflict that informed these drills.

How outlets are covering it

United24 Media and Ukrainska Pravda both emphasize the offensive nature of the drills, noting that Russian forces practiced crossing into neighboring territory to establish a 'security zone.' They identify Kazakhstan as the probable target due to its geographic proximity and Caspian access. Global Times focuses on the Chinese participation, highlighting the use of Type 99A tanks and drone swarms, and notes that Chinese experts view the exercise as an opportunity to learn from Russian and other participants' combat experiences. AP News provides a neutral overview, confirming Putin's attendance and the multinational nature of the drills without explicitly naming the simulated target country.

Why it matters

The exercises signal a shift in Russian military strategy, moving from defensive posturing to offensive operations in Central Asia. The inclusion of Chinese forces and the integration of drone warfare suggest a deepening military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing. The scenario's focus on creating a 'security zone' in neighboring territory raises concerns about potential future aggression in the region, particularly given Kazakhstan's strategic importance and shared border with Russia.

What to watch

The Chinese troops are currently withdrawing from the Chebarkul training ground via air and railway. They are expected to review their experience in multinational operational planning and joint live-force operations upon returning to their units. No further official statements have been made regarding the specific target of the simulated offensive, but the scenario's details suggest a potential focus on Central Asian security dynamics.