EU Commission Proposes Sweeping Reforms to Prepare for Enlargement, Including 15-Year Probation for New Members

Key points

• The European Commission proposes moving away from unanimity in EU decision-making, particularly in accession processes, by activating 'passerelle clauses' to allow qualified majority voting (QMV).
• A 15-year probation period for new member states is proposed, allowing the EU to suspend voting rights or funds for breaches of democratic values, a stricter threshold than the existing Article 7 mechanism.
• The Commission suggests reducing the number of commissioners, moving away from the current one-commissioner-per-member-state model, which has been a point of contention since the Lisbon Treaty.
• Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos emphasized the strategic importance of EU expansion to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe, citing Montenegro, Albania, Moldova, and Ukraine as frontrunners.
• The proposals face potential resistance from member states, including France, Germany, Italy, and Austria, who are concerned about losing veto powers and permanent representation in the Commission.

Background

These reforms come amid a broader push for EU institutional changes, following recent setbacks in foreign policy coordination, such as the abandonment of a defence advisory panel in September 2026. The EU has also been exploring new partnerships, such as associate membership for Canada, to strengthen its geopolitical position. Additionally, ongoing tensions with Ukraine over tax reforms and funding have highlighted the challenges of integrating new members and maintaining cohesion within the bloc.

How outlets are covering it

Euronews highlights the Commission's focus on making the EU 'fit for enlargement' by reducing unanimity and the number of commissioners, noting that these changes are likely to face resistance from member states. The Guardian emphasizes the 15-year probation period as a safeguard against democratic backsliding, drawing parallels to the case of Viktor Orbán in Hungary. While Euronews focuses on the institutional and procedural changes, The Guardian underscores the political and democratic implications of the reforms, particularly in the context of geopolitical competition from Russia and China. Both sources agree that the proposals are controversial and will be tested at the European Council in October.

Why it matters

The proposed reforms are critical for the EU's ability to expand and maintain effectiveness in a changing geopolitical landscape. By addressing issues of unanimity, representation, and democratic safeguards, the Commission aims to ensure that the EU can integrate new members without compromising its core values or decision-making efficiency. The success of these reforms will determine the EU's capacity to counter external influences and strengthen its position in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans.

What to watch

The European Council is expected to discuss the enlargement reforms on 15-16 October 2026. Member states will need to decide whether to support the shift to qualified majority voting, the reduction in the number of commissioners, and the 15-year probation period for new members. The outcome of these discussions will shape the EU's approach to future enlargement and its ability to respond to geopolitical challenges in the region.