Latvia’s PM Kulbergs Faces Coalition Crisis as Russian-Speaker Vote Fractures

Key points

• Kulbergs’ United List party is leading polls at 20%, but his coalition partners New Unity and ZZS are below the 5% electoral threshold.
• If his partners fail to enter parliament, Kulbergs may need to negotiate with Ainārs Šlesers, a right-wing figure who opposes restrictive tariffs on Russia.
• Latvia recently blocked the delisting of two Russian billionaires from EU sanctions, a move Kulbergs used to bolster his pro-Ukraine stance.
• Traditional parties representing Russian speakers, such as Harmony Center, have collapsed, leaving a fragmented political landscape for the 35% of citizens who speak Russian at home.
• Voters are frustrated by high inflation, uncertainty surrounding airBaltic, and migration issues, shifting the political pendulum away from previous pro-Ukraine rally effects.

Background

This election follows a period of significant political realignment in Latvia. In 2022, New Unity benefited from a rally-around-the-flag moment following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the political landscape for Russian speakers has fragmented since the collapse of the Harmony Center party and the dissolution of the For Stability! faction in early 2026. The current contest is also set against the backdrop of broader EU-Russia tensions, including recent sanctions standoffs and the impact of Russian hybrid warfare on Baltic security.

How outlets are covering it

POLITICO emphasizes the immediate political risk to Kulbergs, highlighting the potential necessity of a coalition with Šlesers if his current partners fail to clear the threshold. It frames the recent EU sanctions standoff as a potential boost for Kulbergs’ visibility. Meduza focuses on the structural collapse of political representation for Russian speakers, noting that while new parties like Latvia First and Sovereign Power are capturing this vote, they often hold pro-Russia or anti-Western views. Meduza argues that pro-European Russian speakers are left without a clear political home, as mainstream parties have restricted Russian language use, while populist groups are viewed with suspicion for their ties to Moscow.

Why it matters

The outcome will determine whether Latvia maintains its hardline stance on Russia within the EU or shifts toward a more pragmatic, trade-focused approach. A coalition with Šlesers could signal a softening of Latvia’s position on Russian sanctions and trade, potentially affecting EU cohesion. Additionally, the fragmentation of the Russian-speaking vote indicates a deeper societal rift, where language and national identity are becoming increasingly polarized by the war in Ukraine.

What to watch

Kulbergs will need to form a governing coalition within weeks of the election. If New Unity and ZZS fail to clear the 5% threshold, he may be forced to negotiate with Šlesers or other right-wing parties. The EU will also monitor Latvia’s stance on sanctions and military cooperation, particularly regarding France’s nuclear deterrence initiative. The political landscape for Russian speakers will likely remain fragmented, with no single party able to unify the community.