The potential impacts of El Niño on weather, hurricanes, and water quality.

El Niño has returned with an expanding pool of warmer-than-normal water in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The transition to an emerging El Niño initially favors a wetter pattern heading into early summer for areas recently experiencing moderate drought from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. Later in the year during the fall and winter, El Niño trends drier-than-normal in the Midwest, with above-normal rainfall in the Southern states. The return of El Niño likely means fewer strong Atlantic hurricanes due to increased westerly wind shear. NOAA forecasters are predicting a 56% chance of a strong El Niño developing and an 84% chance of at least a moderate event.