Russia Seen Planning Provocation in Baltic States or Poland to Test NATO Unity

Western intelligence and Baltic leaders warn Russia could stage hybrid provocations in the Baltic states or Poland to test NATO cohesion as Moscow faces pressure from Ukraine’s long-range strikes; Latvia cautions that Moscow is unlikely to launch a second front but could use missiles, drones, or other actions to signal aggression, while Poland’s Donald Tusk warns of rising instability and possible escalation in the coming weeks. Experts say Moscow may seek to disrupt NATO unity rather than a full-scale invasion, though concrete evidence remains limited.