All articles tagged with #cape
Valuations are stretched, nearing levels seen at the March 2000 burst, and Hulbert cites a CAPE-based model that once forecast a negative real-return decade (S&P 500 about -7% annually, Nasdaq-100 about -10%). With today’s high valuations and AI hype, the coming decade could deliver subpar gains despite a prolonged bull run, reminding investors that 'this time is different' arguments often precede a disappointing stretch.
Wary signals are flashing: credit spreads on investment-grade bonds have narrowed to about 71 basis points—the tightest since 1998—raising the risk of a bond sell-off if economic conditions worsen, while the stock market's CAPE ratio sits at 40.1 in January 2026, the highest since the dot-com era. If history repeats, the S&P 500 could fall roughly 3% in 1 year, 19% in 2 years, and 30% in 3 years, with little chance of a positive return; though AI-driven earnings could mute the move, the current setup favors caution: trim risk, and limit stock purchases to high-conviction ideas.