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Cape

All articles tagged with #cape

Tariff Refunds: A Slow, Unequal Recovery After the Court Ruling
business25 days ago

Tariff Refunds: A Slow, Unequal Recovery After the Court Ruling

The Supreme Court invalidated roughly $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs, but refunds are far from automatic. The CAPE system requires about 330,000 importers to file detailed, entry-by-entry claims, with many entries excluded and refunds potentially delayed 60–90 days per importer. Large firms and Wall Street buyers may win, while small importers, nonprofits, and taxpayers shoulder higher costs and delayed relief; consumer refunds are unlikely. The process risks ongoing uncertainty as the government weighs appeals, and total interest on overdue refunds could amount to several billions. In short, the refunds are likely to be slower, smaller, and more uneven than advocates hoped, underscoring the policy’s chaotic legacy.

Tariff refunds begin via CAPE portal, but only direct tariff payers qualify
politics1 month ago

Tariff refunds begin via CAPE portal, but only direct tariff payers qualify

The Trump administration launched CAPE, a tariff-refund portal to return more than $166 billion in tariffs after many were struck down by the Supreme Court; refunds are limited to entities that paid tariffs directly to the U.S. government, meaning most consumers who faced higher prices won’t qualify. The move follows a court ruling to advance the refund process, and Trump continues to pursue tariffs under other authorities despite the limited refunds.

Tariff refund portal stumbles at launch as glitches slow claims for thousands
business1 month ago

Tariff refund portal stumbles at launch as glitches slow claims for thousands

At launch, CBP’s CAPE tariff-refund portal faced outages and heavy traffic, delaying claims from importers such as Learning Resources and Busy Baby; the agency says it’s investigating the issues while processing eligible IEEPA refunds, with most refunds expected within 60–90 days of approval (though timings can vary), as businesses weigh the impact of tariffs on pricing and growth.

US tariff refunds begin via CAPE portal in phased rollout
business1 month ago

US tariff refunds begin via CAPE portal in phased rollout

Two months after the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. kicks off a phased process to reimburse importers—about $166 billion plus interest—through the CBP’s Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) portal. In the first phase, only importers of record (or their brokers) with eligible tariff payments can apply, and refunds are expected within 60–90 days after approval, though longer if additional reviews are needed or if the administration takes steps to shrink refunds.

US opens online portal to start refunding billions in tariffs
politics1 month ago

US opens online portal to start refunding billions in tariffs

The Trump administration has launched an online portal via US Customs and Border Protection to begin refunding about $166 billion in tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court, covering more than 53 million shipments from roughly 330,000 importers. Refunds should be issued within 60–90 days after CBP approves each claim, and the process could eventually reach consumers; more than 3,000 businesses, including FedEx and Costco, have pursued refunds through lawsuits.

US to launch centralized tariff refunds via CAPE on April 20
business1 month ago

US to launch centralized tariff refunds via CAPE on April 20

The Trump-era tariff refunds program will roll out with CAPE, a centralized system that will issue electronic refunds for roughly $166 billion in tariffs the Supreme Court ruled unlawful under the IEEPA. CBP says the initial phase will consolidate refunds into a single payment with interest rather than processing by entry. As of April 9, about 56,497 importers had completed the process for roughly $127 billion in refunds; rollout will be phased, with consideration given to handling a subset of entries tied to $2.9 billion in tariffs manually to avoid overburdening trade operations. The refunds follow litigation in the Court of International Trade, and some smaller importers have warned the cost may exceed benefits.

Markets Brace for a Possible Lost Decade as Bubble-Era Valuations Return
investing2 months ago

Markets Brace for a Possible Lost Decade as Bubble-Era Valuations Return

Valuations are stretched, nearing levels seen at the March 2000 burst, and Hulbert cites a CAPE-based model that once forecast a negative real-return decade (S&P 500 about -7% annually, Nasdaq-100 about -10%). With today’s high valuations and AI hype, the coming decade could deliver subpar gains despite a prolonged bull run, reminding investors that 'this time is different' arguments often precede a disappointing stretch.

Bond Spreads Reach Dot-Com Levels and CAPE Signal S&P Slump Ahead
markets3 months ago

Bond Spreads Reach Dot-Com Levels and CAPE Signal S&P Slump Ahead

Wary signals are flashing: credit spreads on investment-grade bonds have narrowed to about 71 basis points—the tightest since 1998—raising the risk of a bond sell-off if economic conditions worsen, while the stock market's CAPE ratio sits at 40.1 in January 2026, the highest since the dot-com era. If history repeats, the S&P 500 could fall roughly 3% in 1 year, 19% in 2 years, and 30% in 3 years, with little chance of a positive return; though AI-driven earnings could mute the move, the current setup favors caution: trim risk, and limit stock purchases to high-conviction ideas.