Micron's AI Windfall Faces Durability Doubts Amid Big Capex Push
Micron topped earnings with strong revenue growth and an ~81% gross margin, guiding to about $33.5B in revenue, but its stock dropped ~13% as investors question how durable the upcycle is given a heavy capex push (FY26 capex >$25B) for HBM4, plus intensified competitive pressure from Samsung’s integrated memory/logic stack. While AI demand supports pricing power, a potential supply rebound by 2027 could cap margins, keeping Micron trading at ~7x forward earnings. If durability holds and the AI memory cycle extends, upside remains; otherwise the stock faces further downside as the market prices in normalization.









