Frontline Pressure Tightens as Russia Prepares for a Spring-Summer 2026 Offensive
ISW assesses Russia is intensifying mechanized assaults across the frontline in what appears to be preparation for a Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, though with limited armor concentrated in localized, pulsing attacks. Ukraine has made some advances near Slovyansk, Kostyantynivka–Druzhkivka, and Hulyaipole, while Ukrainian drones disrupt Russian operations and strikes target logistics and energy infrastructure. Separately, Moscow seeks leverage with Iran and Belarus amid sanctions and economic pressures, and Ukraine weighs the political path to elections amid martial law and ceasefire questions. Russia conducted a large drone campaign (about 156 drones with roughly 133 downed) causing damage to infrastructure, and Ukrainian forces downed a Ka-52 helicopter with FPV drones, illustrating the continued prominence of drone warfare on the battlefield.
