All articles tagged with #oil inventories
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that global oil inventories are critically low, with nearly 3 billion barrels of supply lost since the Iran conflict began. He stated that replenishing stocks could take two years, even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, as emergency reserves fail to address long-term supply deficits.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that global oil stockpiles are 'scarily thin' following a seven-month conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Nasser stated that the war reduced regional supply by nearly 3 billion barrels, with over 1 billion barrels drawn from reserves to cushion the shortfall. He estimated that rebuilding inventories could take up to two years, even after the conflict ends. While Gulf exports have recovered to 15.5 million barrels per day, representing over 80% of pre-conflict volumes, physical crude prices remain at their highest levels since April. Aramco is exploring alternative export routes to mitigate future disruptions.
Crude oil exports from the Middle East have returned to pre-war levels via alternative routes, but refined product flows remain constrained. This imbalance, combined with depleted global stockpiles and ongoing security risks, is keeping oil prices elevated and diesel costs at record highs.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 340.3 million barrels (the lowest since 1983) as emergency releases cushion an Iran-related supply disruption. Inventories are at historic lows and are expected to keep declining even after a U.S.–Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with normalization of flows likely taking weeks to months; analysts warn that prices could stay under pressure while the global supply tightens. The SPR’s role as a last-resort supplier remains front and center amid a tight oil market and coordinated IEA releases earlier this year.
Industry executives warn that the loss of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is draining global petroleum inventories to dangerously low levels, signaling a potential price spike in the coming weeks, despite U.S. production gains and SPR releases.
Exxon Mobil warned that oil inventories are headed for record lows in the coming weeks due to the Middle East war, a development it says will push prices higher—with Brent potentially hitting $150–$160 per barrel once inventory levels bottom out; current prices sit below $100 as markets await a possible U.S.–Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA has flagged rapid stock depletion and a past release of 400 million barrels to cushion the disruption.
Barclays kept its $100 Brent forecast for 2026 but warned that upside risks remain as the Strait of Hormuz disruption drains U.S. and global inventories to multi‑year lows. Goldman Sachs has also flagged rapid depletion, and crude prices climbed in early trading, with Brent around $105 and WTI near $98 as markets price in a sustained supply shock.
Disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz tied to Iran’s war are triggering a global supply shock that reaches oil and spreads into fertilizers, sulfuric acid, and other inputs, with about 30% of global urea supplies affected and fertilizer costs spiking. Experts warn of crop losses and higher food inflation if routes aren’t restored, as oil inventories fall to near-record lows and input prices rise across Asia and beyond.
Morgan Stanley warns that price-supporting crude buffers could be exhausted if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into late June, potentially pushing Brent toward $150/bbl, while maintaining forecasts of about $110 for Dated Brent in Q2, $100 in Q3, and $90 in Q4 2026; Goldman Sachs also flags crashing oil inventories, underscoring ongoing supply risks as geopolitical tensions persist.
Oil prices remained stable after US sanctions targeted Iranian crude exports disguised as Iraqi oil, with Brent at $68.93 and WTI at $65.42 per barrel. The US also expressed concerns over Brazil's purchases of Russian diesel. Expectations point to a decline in US oil inventories by about 3.4 million barrels last week. OPEC+ is expected to maintain current production levels in its upcoming meeting, with some analysts suggesting a potential for future production cuts due to market surplus concerns.
The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil supplies will significantly exceed demand in 2025, leading to increased inventories, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Supply growth is driven by Opec+ and non-Opec+ producers, while demand growth is restrained by weak consumption in China and the US. The IEA also forecasts that oil supply will continue to outpace demand through 2030, with China's demand peaking around 2027.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a significant build in oil and fuel stocks, with oil inventories increasing by 2.9 million barrels, gasoline inventories adding 2.7 million barrels, and middle distillate stocks rising by 1.5 million barrels. This comes amid security concerns in the Red Sea, leading to rerouting of shipping routes and increased military presence in the region. Crude oil prices moved lower in response to the inventory increase.
Oil prices fell after reaching their highest level in over a year, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures declining 2.09% to $91.72 per barrel and global benchmark Brent down 1.4% at $95.18. The drop in prices was driven by a decrease in crude stocks at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma, which fell to their lowest level since July 2022. The ongoing production cuts by OPEC and its allies, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have contributed to a "pretty robust deficit" in the global oil markets. While prices are expected to remain high for the rest of the year, there are concerns about long-term demand destruction if prices reach triple digits.
Oil inventories are starting to decline in certain regions as demand surpasses supply due to production cuts by OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, leading to expectations of higher oil prices in the coming months. Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC predict that oil demand will outpace supply this year, resulting in overall inventory draws. While global oil inventories increased in May, signs of tightness are emerging, particularly in the United States. Refineries are running at higher capacities to meet rising summer demand, and a drop in Russian oil exports is also contributing to the decline in inventories. However, there are still significant crude builds in China and Japan, offsetting the drawdown in the Middle East Gulf. Overall, analysts anticipate a fall in inventories in the coming weeks before a potential build-up in the fourth quarter as refineries slow down and higher oil prices incentivize some OPEC+ members to exceed their production quotas.