NATO's Proximity Deterrence: Countering Russian Aggression
Former NATO deputy head, Rose Gottemoeller, argues that while traditional deterrence failed to prevent Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a more nuanced form of deterrence called "proximity deterrence" is currently in effect. This strategy relies on the proximity of Ukrainian facilities to NATO territory, which discourages massive Russian missile strikes. NATO's air-policing of Black Sea transit lanes and its commitment to defending every inch of alliance territory, including Romanian territory across the Danube from Ukrainian ports, reinforce this deterrence. However, the situation remains volatile, and NATO must continue to bolster proximity deterrence to prevent attacks from straying onto its territory and escalating into direct confrontation.