Rivian’s 2026 Slide Driven by Vanishing Credits and Back-Loaded Delivery Targets
Rivian shares have fallen 25% year-to-date as $164 million in regulatory credits that boosted first-half margins are set to disappear in the second half. The company faces a steep production ramp, requiring 42,400 to 47,400 deliveries in H2 compared to 22,600 in H1, with the second factory shift not contributing volume until Q4. While automotive gross losses narrowed in Q2, the absence of credits and a delayed production ramp create significant margin pressure for the remainder of the year.
