UAE exits OPEC, signaling shifts for oil markets

The UAE’s decision to quit OPEC, the bloc’s third-largest producer, marks a move toward greater production autonomy and diversification from fossil fuels, potentially weakening OPEC’s ability to manage supply and prompting longer, more volatile price swings. Analysts see mixed implications: some see alignment with US policy and possible price moderation, while others warn of further defections and greater volatility. Near-term exports remain constrained by Hormuz, but UAE capacity could rise toward about 4.5 million bpd within 18 months (up from roughly 3.3 mbpd before the war, with total capacity near 4.8 mbpd). The shift could tilt OPEC leadership more toward Saudi Arabia and unfold over the medium term rather than immediately.