Economists Divided on Fed's Rate Cut Decision, March Uncertain - Reuters Poll

A majority of economists polled by Reuters believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them. The probability of a recession within a year has fallen to 40%, the lowest since September 2022. While the Fed has left the possibility of a rate hike or pause at its September meeting open, economists believe that upcoming data on growth and inflation will likely dissuade further rate hikes. The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation is not expected to reach its 2% target until at least 2025.