Economists Predict Recession Despite Resilient Global Growth and Rising Stock Market
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UNC economist Gerald Cohen predicts a recession in late 2023 or early 2024, despite the addition of 209,000 jobs in June and a dip in the unemployment rate to 3.6 percent. Cohen attributes the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates to the tight labor market, which has returned to pre-COVID levels, and concerns about inflation. He also highlights downward revisions to previous months' job reports, suggesting that the Fed may be closer to ending interest rate hikes than previously thought.
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