Fed dot plot hints at rate hikes this year as policy shifts under Warsh

The Fed’s latest dot plot shows a notable shift: nine of the 18 participating FOMC members expect at least one rate hike this year, with six predicting multiple hikes, while the other nine foresee no change or a cut by year-end 2026. The median estimate for the end of 2027 remains 3.50%–3.75%. This contrasts with March’s projection of a 2026 cut and two cuts by 2027. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not participate in the dot plot and has signaled a move away from forward guidance, including a potential discontinuation of the dot plot as part of a broader communications review.