Record Diesel Prices Strain Rural Economies and Political Loyalties

Key points

• The average price of diesel reached $6.32 per gallon in the US, up 65% since the start of the Iran war in February.
• Scott Belden, an Oklahoma rancher, spends an additional $1,000 to $1,400 weekly on fuel, threatening the profitability of his hay harvesting operations.
• In New Mexico, diesel prices hit $6.04 per gallon, forcing the Rail Runner Express to absorb higher costs without raising ticket prices, while Longshot Express reduced its fleet from 12 to four trucks.
• President Trump recently agreed to import 300,000 tons of Russian diesel, a move that has divided the Republican Party and is criticized by experts as insufficient to lower prices.
• Voters are increasingly focused on the cost of living, with some former supporters of the current administration expressing dissatisfaction with the economic consequences of recent policies.

Background

Fuel prices have remained elevated since the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of reserves in October to counteract disruptions from the Iran war and Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Earlier in the year, tariff-free beef imports also caused volatility for ranchers, compounding financial stress in the agricultural sector. Recent geopolitical tensions, including potential transit tolls in the Gulf, have kept Brent crude near $101.59 per barrel, limiting the effectiveness of reserve releases.

How outlets are covering it

ABC News highlights the personal toll on Scott Belden, a three-time Trump voter, who now blames the president for the fuel crisis and anticipates a shift in Republican support. KOB 4 focuses on the broader business impact in New Mexico, noting that while the Rail Runner Express can absorb costs, smaller haulers like Longshot Express are shrinking operations. Both sources agree that prices are at record highs, but ABC emphasizes political fallout, while KOB details operational adjustments by businesses.

Why it matters

The surge in diesel costs is not just an economic issue but a political one, as it directly impacts voter sentiment ahead of the midterms. The inability to pass costs to consumers due to widespread financial strain suggests a potential for broader economic instability. The reliance on Russian diesel imports, despite sanctions, highlights the complex trade-offs in energy policy and their domestic consequences.

What to watch

Experts doubt that the Russian diesel import deal will significantly lower prices, and Belden expects costs to remain high. The midterm elections are less than three weeks away, and the cost of living is a top concern for voters. Businesses may continue to absorb costs or reduce operations, potentially leading to a spike in consumer prices if the situation is not resolved.