September Job Openings Rebound to 7.52 Million, Signaling Labor Market Stabilization

Key points

• Job openings increased by 333,000 to 7.52 million in September, exceeding the consensus estimate of 7.15 million.
• The openings-to-unemployed ratio improved to 1.05, meaning there are now more available jobs than unemployed workers.
• Hiring rose by 131,000 to 5.4 million, while layoffs and discharges fell by 127,000 to 1.64 million, the lowest level since March 2025.
• Voluntary quits spiked to 3.36 million, the highest since March 2025, suggesting workers are more confident in finding new employment.
• Manufacturing, state and local government, and professional services saw the largest increases in job postings.
• The October nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show 59,000 to 65,000 job gains, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%.

Background

This report follows a period of stagnation where job openings hit spring lows in August, reaching 7.1 million. Earlier in September, private-sector employment rose by 90,000, reversing a three-month slowdown. The current data indicates a shift from a 'low hire, low fire' market to one with slightly more dynamism, though structural headwinds like high interest rates and inflation persist.

How outlets are covering it

CNBC emphasizes the positive signs of the labor market, highlighting the surge in openings and the drop in layoffs as evidence of improving conditions. Yahoo Finance characterizes the market as still 'low hire, low fire,' noting that while openings and hiring edged higher, the changes were modest. WRAL, citing the Associated Press, frames the jump in job postings as a hopeful sign of stronger economic growth but cautions that voters remain gloomy about the economy due to high prices. Nicole Bachaud of ZipRecruiter warns that high inflation and interest rates may limit future hiring expansion.

Why it matters

The rebound in job openings and hiring suggests the labor market is stabilizing, which could influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. A stronger labor market may reduce pressure for rate cuts, potentially keeping inflation in check but also maintaining higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. The increase in voluntary quits indicates growing worker confidence, which could lead to wage pressures if hiring continues to rise.

What to watch

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which is expected to show 59,000 to 65,000 new jobs. Economists will watch for continued improvements in hiring and layoffs to determine if the labor market is entering a sustained recovery or if the recent gains are temporary. The trend in job openings and quits will be critical in assessing the overall health of the labor market.