The Recession That Went Unnoticed: Strong Economic Growth Surprises Market

Despite predictions of a looming recession, the global economy has not yet experienced a downturn. The Federal Reserve's efforts to slow the economy and control inflation have not pushed it to its breaking point. The inverted yield curve and cautious corporate investment may have contributed to the resilience of the economy. Recency bias and the expectation of more pain following the brief pandemic recession also played a role in recession calls. However, recessions are relatively rare, with the U.S. economy spending roughly 16% of the past 90+ years in a recession. While the good times may not last forever, historical data suggests that the current expansion could last longer than expected.