US Diesel Prices Stay Near Record Highs Despite Trump's Supply Pushes

Key points

• US diesel prices are at $6.28 per gallon, up 70% since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in February.
• Trump's moves to boost supplies include a G7 agreement to release 100 million barrels of oil and petroleum products and an executive order allowing red-dyed diesel on public roads.
• The G7 release appears to largely cover what remains of a March emergency release by International Energy Agency members, rather than new supply.
• The red-dyed diesel waiver has drawn limited industry uptake due to unclear tax liabilities, logistical hurdles, and the risk of fines.
• Analysts say the only real solution to high diesel prices is ending the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, which is unlikely before the November 3 midterms.

Background

US diesel prices have been rising since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in February, reaching a record high of $6.53 per gallon in September. The Trump administration has been considering a ban on diesel exports to lower domestic fuel prices, but industry groups and analysts warn that such a move could backfire by raising global prices and disrupting US gasoline supply.

How outlets are covering it

Reuters and Yahoo Finance emphasize that Trump's moves to boost supplies, including the G7 release and red-dyed diesel waiver, have not significantly lowered diesel prices. BBC and CNBC highlight the political implications of high fuel prices for the November 3 midterms, noting that affordability is a top concern for voters. The American Prospect argues that Trump's short-term tricks will not work and that the only real solution is ending the Iran war. All sources agree that the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are the primary drivers of high diesel prices.

Why it matters

High diesel prices are putting pressure on traditional Republican constituencies, including farmers, truckers, and rural voters, and are contributing to a drop in Trump's approval rating. The cost of living is the top item cited by voters in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and high diesel prices are making it harder for Trump and his Republican Party to defend narrow congressional majorities in the November 3 midterm elections.

What to watch

The Trump administration is expected to continue pursuing short-term measures to ease diesel prices, including the G7 release and red-dyed diesel waiver. However, analysts say that the only real solution to high diesel prices is ending the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, which is unlikely before the November 3 midterms. The administration is also expected to pursue longer-term energy policies to address the underlying supply issues.