"Vanguard predicts spike in US unemployment, shattering Fed's recession-free dream"

Vanguard's top economist, Joe Davis, predicts that US unemployment will spike above 4% over the next year, contradicting the Federal Reserve's belief that there will be no recession. Davis argues that even though job losses will suppress wage growth and help inflation fall to the Fed's target level of 2%, it will also prevent the central bank from achieving a "soft landing" scenario. Historically, a rise in the unemployment rate above 4% has been associated with a recession, albeit not necessarily a deep one.