Crude Hits $100 as Hormuz Attacks and Failed Ceasefire Spike Energy Costs

Key points

• Brent crude hit a session high of $110 per barrel, its first time above that level since May, before closing at $109.86; U.S. WTI settled at $101.41, up 3.5%.
• Iran sank the container ship GFS Pride and attacked at least nine commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday, leaving three seafarers injured and two missing.
• The 'energy ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine collapsed after Moscow continued striking Ukrainian infrastructure; Kyiv vowed to resume attacks on Russian refineries.
• Houthi militants in Yemen fired missiles at Saudi Arabia, hitting an Aramco building in Dhahran and previously killing 12 at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport.
• U.S. diesel prices averaged $6.33 per gallon, up over 70% from last year, while the IEA agreed to release more than 20 million barrels of diesel to address shortages.

Background

Oil prices have been volatile since the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran in late February 2026, which led to Iran restricting Hormuz shipping. Brent crude previously breached $100 in September following U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers and Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities. Current spikes reflect a continuation of these disruptions, compounded by new conflicts in the Russia-Ukraine war.

How outlets are covering it

CNBC and NBC News emphasize the immediate price surge and the failure of the Russia-Ukraine energy truce, noting that no Russian diesel has reached the market despite U.S. sanctions relief. The Globe and Mail highlights the broader economic impact, such as record-high diesel prices in Canada and the IEA’s strategic reserve release, while noting that analysts expect prices to remain elevated due to persistent geopolitical risks. All sources agree that the convergence of Middle East and European conflicts is creating a complex supply crisis.

Why it matters

Sustained high energy costs are driving inflation and straining global economies, particularly diesel-dependent sectors like agriculture and logistics. The collapse of diplomatic efforts to stabilize energy flows suggests that supply disruptions may persist, potentially forcing central banks to maintain higher interest rates and impacting consumer spending ahead of U.S. midterm elections.

What to watch

Markets will monitor for further escalations in the Strait of Hormuz and any actual movement of Russian diesel into global markets. The IEA’s reserve release may provide temporary relief, but analysts from Rystad Energy and TD Cowen warn that structural supply issues and geopolitical tensions will keep prices elevated through 2026 and into 2027.