Iran Shadow Creates Price Paradox: Oil Could Slip Below $40

Gail Tverberg argues that Iran-related oil disruptions could deplete buffer supplies and trigger a global recession, potentially pushing oil prices below $40 rather than driving them higher, as demand is constrained and supply chains adjust; she frames the outcome through the lens of a self-organizing economy, noting price lag, government interventions, and the historical pattern where war can seem to “solve” economic stress by boosting employment, not price spikes.