"Market Speculation: The Fed's Rate Cut Gamble Unravels"

The likelihood of a March rate cut has dropped to around 20% and may approach 0% as Fed speakers return, with the job report and FOMC meeting indicating that rate cuts are not imminent. The labor market shows a structural shift, with a high number of workers not in the labor force and a slow increase in employed workers, leading to a mismatch between job vacancies and available workers. Despite high real interest rates, the US economy remains strong, and market-based inflation expectations suggest the economy is at a neutral level. This indicates that the concept of rate cuts in the near future is likely a fantasy.