California Coast Faces Record Flooding as El Niño and King Tides Converge

Key points

• Sea levels in San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco were 1.1 to 1.4 feet higher than expected last week, breaking all-time records for maximum sea levels.
• The flooding is caused by a convergence of record-hot ocean temperatures, moderately high tides, and Kelvin waves moving warm water from the Pacific toward the coast.
• Upcoming king tides around Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Martin Luther King Jr. Day are expected to be exceptionally high due to rare lunar orbital cycles.
• The current El Niño has an 83% chance of being the strongest in the modern record, with ocean temperatures expected to remain above average through the spring.
• Recent flooding damaged 114 structures in Huntington Beach and inundated parts of Pacific Coast Highway, with similar impacts reported in Marin County and other coastal areas.

Background

Recent archive articles from October 2026 documented the initial record-breaking tides that struck California’s coast, with water levels exceeding 8 feet in Southern California. These events were described as precursors to more severe flooding later in the year, driven by the same combination of El Niño, marine heatwaves, and Kelvin waves. The current situation is a continuation of these trends, with experts warning that the winter months will bring even higher water levels due to astronomical king tides and potential winter storms.

Why it matters

The current flooding serves as a preview of California’s coastal future, with estimates suggesting an additional 1 to 3 feet of sea level rise by 2070. The convergence of El Niño, king tides, and climate change-driven sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal infrastructure, property, and safety. The events highlight the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events due to climate change, underscoring the need for preparedness and adaptation measures.

What to watch

The next major flooding events are expected around the Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Martin Luther King Jr. Day holidays, when astronomical king tides will coincide with continued warm ocean temperatures. Winter storms may also generate large swells, further exacerbating flooding and erosion. The ocean is expected to remain warmer than average through the spring, potentially leading to sustained high sea levels and increased coastal impacts.