Iran Expands Hormuz Talks to Include GCC and Iraq Amid Rising Oil Prices

Key points

• Iran’s Foreign Ministry announced that foreign ministers from GCC countries and Iraq will attend a meeting in Oman on Monday to discuss the Strait of Hormuz.
• The objective is to promote regional understanding and strengthen shared security, moving beyond previous bilateral discussions between Iran and Oman.
• Iran and Oman previously agreed on a temporary shipping route, mine clearing procedures, and short-term management of the strait last month.
• Oil prices have surpassed $100 a barrel this week due to the blockade, which has disrupted one-fifth of global oil supplies since US-Israeli strikes began in February.
• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian described the current sanctions and military pressure as reaching a 'critical and dangerous stage' during a speech at the BRICS summit in India.
• US President Donald Trump reiterated his stance that Iran will never possess a nuclear weapon during a speech marking the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks.

Background

This development follows a volatile period of escalation and de-escalation in the Gulf. In August, Trump halted strikes to allow for talks on Hormuz routes, though Iran denied direct negotiations with the US. In September, tensions flared again after US airstrikes on Iranian tankers and alleged mine attempts, leading to Iranian retaliatory strikes on US forces and infrastructure. Iran’s Supreme Leader had previously urged Gulf states to unite against perceived external threats, setting the stage for the current diplomatic push to manage the strait through regional actors rather than external powers.

Why it matters

The expansion of Hormuz talks to include broader Gulf and Iraqi stakeholders signals a shift from bilateral crisis management to a multilateral regional security framework. This is critical for stabilizing global energy markets, as the strait’s blockade continues to drive oil prices above $100 a barrel. The outcome of these talks will determine whether the temporary shipping lanes agreed upon by Iran and Oman can be formalized into a sustainable arrangement, potentially reducing the risk of further military escalation between the US, Israel, and Iran.

What to watch

The immediate focus is on the Monday meeting in Oman, where officials will likely finalize the details of the temporary shipping lane and mine clearing protocols. Analysts expect Iran to announce the agreed-upon script for the temporary lane soon after the talks. Meanwhile, the US and Israel are likely to maintain their naval blockade and sanctions pressure, testing the durability of any new regional agreements. The long-term trajectory depends on whether these regional actors can enforce security measures without triggering further retaliation from Tehran.