Trump's Approval Hits Record Lows as Economic and Iran Policies Backfire

Key points

• A Financial Times poll shows only 25% of registered voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, with 34% approving of his overall performance.
• The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, missing expectations and contributing to a perception that the economy is moving in the wrong direction.
• Approval ratings for Trump’s handling of Iran have dropped by more than 7 percentage points since May, with less than 25% of voters approving of the conflict.
• Pew Research indicates that 67% of Trump’s 2024 voters now approve of his job performance, down 28 percentage points from the start of his second term.
• Despite low approval, 80% of Trump’s 2024 supporters still intend to vote for Republican candidates in November, showing a disconnect between personal and party support.
• The Cook Political Report projects Democrats will gain 9 to 19 House seats, and the party is shifting campaign funds from North Carolina to Kansas to focus on competitive races.

Background

This decline follows a series of negative polls in September 2026, where 63% of voters blamed Trump for economic decline. Earlier reports noted that 55% of voters believed his policies harmed the economy, and cross-border consensus on the failure of Canada tariffs had already begun to erode support among his base. The current situation represents a continuation of that downward trend, with approval ratings now reaching the lowest levels of his second term.

How outlets are covering it

The Financial Times emphasizes the disconnect between Trump’s personal approval and Republican party loyalty, noting that while his approval is at 34%, 80% of his base still plan to vote for GOP candidates. USA Today highlights the enthusiasm gap, noting that 48% of Democratic voters are 'very enthusiastic' about voting compared to only 30% of Trump supporters. The Daily Beast, citing CNN data analyst Harry Enten, describes the numbers as 'atrocious' and suggests they are typical of conditions that lead to Democratic waves. While all sources agree on the severity of the decline, they differ on the primary driver: the FT focuses on economic and Iran policy failures, while USA Today focuses on the lack of enthusiasm among the Republican base.

Why it matters

The midterm elections in November 2026 will determine control of Congress, and Trump’s low approval ratings pose a significant threat to the Republican Party’s ability to maintain its majority. The disconnect between personal approval and party loyalty suggests that while Trump may lose support, his party could still hold on if they can motivate their base. However, the lack of enthusiasm among Republican voters and the shifting of campaign funds to competitive races indicate that the party is in a defensive posture, potentially leading to significant losses in the House and Senate.

What to watch

The Republican National Committee is expected to pull funding from less competitive states in the next 7 to 10 days, focusing resources on battleground races like Kansas. Trump is likely to continue his campaign rallies, but the focus will shift to addressing voter concerns about the cost of living and the Iran conflict. The outcome of the midterms will depend on whether dissatisfied Trump voters and independents can separate their views of the president from their support for the party.