El Niño reorders hurricane risk: calmer Atlantic, stormier Pacific

Forecasters expect a strong El Niño this summer (about 98% chance, with an 80% chance of moderate/strong), which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through increased wind shear and dry air, leading to fewer Atlantic storms and lower US landfall risk, while boosting activity in the eastern/central Pacific. Historical data show Atlantic totals fall during El Niño years, whereas the Pacific often sees more storms; NOAA also projects an above-normal eastern Pacific season and a generally lower Atlantic season, with regional risks (e.g., Hawaii) varying by location and storm track.