All articles tagged with #wind shear
NOAA projects a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season due to a likely strong El Niño, forecasting 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes, with wind shear expected to suppress development. History shows strong El Niño years often bring fewer storms, but a single impactful storm is still possible, so preparedness remains essential.
Forecasters expect a strong El Niño this summer (about 98% chance, with an 80% chance of moderate/strong), which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through increased wind shear and dry air, leading to fewer Atlantic storms and lower US landfall risk, while boosting activity in the eastern/central Pacific. Historical data show Atlantic totals fall during El Niño years, whereas the Pacific often sees more storms; NOAA also projects an above-normal eastern Pacific season and a generally lower Atlantic season, with regional risks (e.g., Hawaii) varying by location and storm track.
A developing El Niño is expected to boost the Eastern Pacific hurricane season in 2026 due to warmer waters and reduced vertical wind shear, while the Atlantic may see fewer storms because of cooler waters and more wind shear, though activity won’t vanish. The East Pacific season begins May 15, with names Amanda, Boris, Cristina and Douglas, and forecasters will monitor outlooks; past events like 2023's Hilary and 2025's Kiko illustrate how El Niño and La Niña patterns influence storms.
Colorado State University’s early forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season projects a somewhat below-average year (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes) due to a developing strong El Niño that increases wind shear and dampens activity; sea-surface temperatures are mixed, Gulf of Mexico activity may be less suppressed, and overall U.S. major hurricane landfall probability is about 32% (down from 43%), with Florida remaining the most at-risk state. Forecasts will be updated in June–August.
Colorado State University’s initial hurricane forecast calls for a slightly below-average Atlantic season—about 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major—driven primarily by the return of El Niño, which is expected to bring upper‑air wind shear that can weaken tropical systems. The La Niña pattern has ended and El Niño should be in place for the season’s peak (mid‑Aug to mid‑Oct). Yet mixed ocean temperatures across the Atlantic and the possibility of hotter‑than‑expected oceans mean the forecast carries uncertainty; stronger heat could erode El Niño’s quieting effect and spur rapid intensification, so conditions remain variable as the season approaches.
A Southwest Airlines flight from Nashville to LaGuardia narrowly avoided colliding with the airport's control tower, coming within 67 feet, after encountering severe weather and executing multiple go-arounds. The FAA is investigating the incident to determine the cause of the aircraft's erratic flight pattern, with a focus on potential wind shear effects. Southwest Airlines is conducting a thorough review to enhance safety measures and prevent similar occurrences in the future.
A United Airlines Boeing 787 flight from Tel Aviv to Newark was forced to divert to New York Stewart International Airport due to extreme turbulence caused by wind shear, injuring 22 passengers and prompting the pilot to declare an emergency due to fuel concerns. Seven passengers were taken to the hospital, and 15 were treated on site for injuries. The flight eventually refueled and continued to Newark, with speculation that attempting a second landing at Newark may have depleted the plane's fuel tanks.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms in southern Michigan on Thursday, with a 2% chance of an isolated tornado along I-94 and southward. Additionally, there is a 5% chance of isolated severe wind gusts and hail extending northward to Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Oakland County. While the author is not extremely concerned about a widespread severe weather outbreak, they caution to keep a close eye on weather information due to the unpredictable nature of warm fronts.
Vice President Kamala Harris' Air Force Two was diverted to Dulles International Airport due to inclement weather after encountering wind shear during a stormy return from Georgia, with no reported injuries.
A dynamic storm system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the threat of strong and severe storms to Middle Georgia on Tuesday, prompting the issuance of the first Weather Warn Day of 2024. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Middle Georgia at a Level 2 risk of severe storms. Strong storms with damaging wind gusts and the possibility of tornadoes are anticipated, along with 1-3 inches of rainfall that could lead to localized flooding. Residents are advised to stay updated on the evolving severe weather threat through various media channels.
A tornado outbreak over the weekend marked the third consecutive December with deadly tornadoes in the United States. The outbreak, which killed six people and caused widespread damage, was fueled by strong wind shear and warmer-than-average temperatures. Climate change may be increasing the likelihood of tornadoes during traditionally cooler months. The National Weather Service confirmed multiple tornadoes, including an EF3 tornado with winds of 150 mph. This trend of December tornado outbreaks highlights the need for continued research and preparedness in the face of changing weather patterns.
Tropical Storm Philippe is moving west towards the eastern Caribbean but is expected to weaken due to increasing wind shear. Meanwhile, a tropical depression is likely to form off Africa and follow Philippe. The system off Africa has a 90% chance of developing within seven days. So far this hurricane season, there have been 16 named storms, including three major hurricanes.
Tropical Storm Philippe formed in the Atlantic, becoming the latest named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. As of Sunday evening, the storm had sustained winds of 50 miles per hour and was located about 1,225 miles from the Cabo Verde Islands. There were no watches, warnings, or threats to land related to Philippe. Forecasters described the storm as "very difficult" to forecast in terms of intensity, but little change in strength is expected over the next three days. Philippe is projected to move west-northwest.
The National Hurricane Center predicts that a tropical system named Idalia may form in the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Currently, there is a broad area of spin around low pressure north of Honduras, but several meteorological factors need to come together for the storm to be named. The presence of an upper-level low pressure system in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico could provide the conditions for the system to strengthen. However, wind shear may limit its development. South Florida may experience indirect effects such as deep moisture and distant spiral bands, leading to a wet and breezy start to next week.
An area of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean or eastern Gulf of Mexico could potentially develop into a tropical depression or storm this weekend into early next week. If a system forms, it is likely to track towards Florida, although the impacts are uncertain. Wind shear is currently high, hindering tropical development, but conditions may become more favorable in the coming days. Floridians are advised to stay updated on the forecast changes and review their preparation plans as we enter the peak of hurricane season.