El Niño forecast nudges Atlantic storms toward a quieter season
As the Atlantic hurricane season opens, forecasters predict a below-average year driven by a developing El Niño that raises wind shear in the Atlantic (3–6 hurricanes and 8–14 named storms), while the Pacific is expected to be active (9–14 hurricanes). The forecast does not indicate landfalls; even a quieter season can still bring major storms. El Niño is likely to take hold by July (82% chance) and remain through winter 2026–27 (96% chance), with broader weather impacts from drought to altered monsoons across the U.S. and past examples like Hilary and Dora highlighting the potential severity regardless of overall counts.
