All articles tagged with #pacific hurricanes
Three Pacific hurricanes — Karina, Lowell and Marie — churn under a likely record-strong El Niño that climate scientists say will boost Pacific storm activity; Lowell could threaten Hawaii as it moves toward Oahu and Kauai, Karina is weakening, and Marie strengthens offshore of Baja California with swells that may affect Mexico and possibly Southern California, while the Atlantic remains quiet.
As the Atlantic hurricane season opens, forecasters predict a below-average year driven by a developing El Niño that raises wind shear in the Atlantic (3–6 hurricanes and 8–14 named storms), while the Pacific is expected to be active (9–14 hurricanes). The forecast does not indicate landfalls; even a quieter season can still bring major storms. El Niño is likely to take hold by July (82% chance) and remain through winter 2026–27 (96% chance), with broader weather impacts from drought to altered monsoons across the U.S. and past examples like Hilary and Dora highlighting the potential severity regardless of overall counts.
Forecasters expect a strong El Niño this summer (about 98% chance, with an 80% chance of moderate/strong), which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through increased wind shear and dry air, leading to fewer Atlantic storms and lower US landfall risk, while boosting activity in the eastern/central Pacific. Historical data show Atlantic totals fall during El Niño years, whereas the Pacific often sees more storms; NOAA also projects an above-normal eastern Pacific season and a generally lower Atlantic season, with regional risks (e.g., Hawaii) varying by location and storm track.