El Niño-Driven Outlook Narrows 2026 Hurricane Season Predictions
TL;DR
Colorado State University’s early forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season projects a somewhat below-average year (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes) due to a developing strong El Niño that increases wind shear and dampens activity; sea-surface temperatures are mixed, Gulf of Mexico activity may be less suppressed, and overall U.S. major hurricane landfall probability is about 32% (down from 43%), with Florida remaining the most at-risk state. Forecasts will be updated in June–August.
- What to expect from the 2026 hurricane season? The first major forecast is out Tampa Bay Times
- The first predictions for hurricane season are in and El Niño’s fingerprints are all over it CNN
- 2026 Hurricane season: Colorado State University forecasts El Niño to dominate and suppress Atlantic activity FOX Weather
- Colorado State: Less Active Hurricane Season Ahead The Weather Channel
- With return of ‘robust’ El Niño likely, researchers forecast a quiet 2026 hurricane season NOLA.com
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