El Niño-Driven Outlook Narrows 2026 Hurricane Season Predictions

Colorado State University’s early forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season projects a somewhat below-average year (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes) due to a developing strong El Niño that increases wind shear and dampens activity; sea-surface temperatures are mixed, Gulf of Mexico activity may be less suppressed, and overall U.S. major hurricane landfall probability is about 32% (down from 43%), with Florida remaining the most at-risk state. Forecasts will be updated in June–August.