Slow Start, Cautious Forecast as 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Approaches Peak

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has started unusually slowly, with NOAA forecasting 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes, while CSU keeps its July forecast at nine named storms (four hurricanes, one major). So far two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed in the Gulf. Forecasters expect the peak from mid-August to mid-October, but signals point to below-average activity due to a strengthening El Niño and cooler Atlantic waters that raise wind shear in the main development region. A few storms could still form, but this season is shaping up to be among the quietest in years; the Pacific is more active, and the lingering El Niño could influence 2027 as well.