Kīlauea Precursory Activity Intensifies as Hurricane Lowell Obscures Summit Monitoring

Key points

• Precursory lava overflows from Kīlauea’s north vent began on September 7 and continued intermittently through September 9, with 29 total events recorded.
• Dome fountains reached 15 to 30 feet, feeding two main lava lobes extending about one kilometer southwest and northeast of the vent.
• Summit inflation at the Uekahuna tiltmeter recovered to 12.3 microradians, but remained unstable since episode 54 on August 25.
• HVO forecast episode 55 to start between September 8 and 10, with a possible extension to September 13 if inflation stalls or deflates.
• Hurricane Lowell obscured summit webcams, forcing HVO to use seismic tremor and thermal imagery to track overflow timing.
• The Volcano Alert Level is WATCH and the Aviation Color Code is ORANGE, both raised when precursory activity began.

Background

Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, with 54 completed fountaining episodes to date. The most recent, episode 54, occurred on August 25, 2026, lasting about nine hours and producing fountains up to 500 feet high and a plume reaching 17,000 feet above sea level. HVO has published forecast ranges for upcoming episodes since episode 5, using tiltmeters and other instruments to monitor magma recharge. The recent sequence of episodes 51 through 54 occurred roughly 13 to 15 days apart, but earlier gaps varied widely. Beat of Hawaii noted that nine of the last 10 HVO forecast windows contained the eventual eruption start, but timing adjustments can leave visitors stranded. The current eruption is confined to Halemaʻumaʕ crater, with all activity inside a closed park area since late 2007.

How outlets are covering it

Big Island Video News and Nature World News both emphasize the impact of Hurricane Lowell on monitoring, noting that rain, clouds, and steam obscured webcams, forcing HVO to rely on seismic tremor and thermal imagery. Nature World News highlighted that 11 small earthquakes were recorded beneath the summit in the preceding 24 hours, while Big Island Video News reported two. Both outlets confirmed the forecast window for episode 55 as September 8 to 10, with a possible extension to September 13. Beat of Hawaii focused on the practical implications for visitors, noting that HVO forecast windows have shifted in the past, making it difficult to time a trip. USGS provided detailed statistics on the eruption’s cumulative impact, including 312.6 million cubic meters of lava volume and 461 hectares of lava extent through episode 54. All sources agreed that no evacuations were necessary, as activity remained within the closed park area.

Why it matters

The ongoing precursory activity at Kīlauea underscores the challenges of monitoring volcanic unrest during severe weather. The reliance on seismic and thermal data instead of visual confirmation highlights the importance of robust monitoring networks. For residents of Kau and Volcano communities, the potential for vog and Pele’s hair downwind poses health risks, particularly for those with respiratory conditions. For visitors, the uncertainty in eruption timing and the limited duration of fountaining episodes make planning difficult. The event also demonstrates the interplay between natural hazards, as Hurricane Lowell complicated the observation of a volcanic system already under heightened alert.

What to watch

HVO will continue daily updates and monitor summit inflation, tremor, and gas emissions to determine if episode 55 begins within the forecast window. If inflation stalls or deflates, the start may be pushed to September 11 through 13. Residents downwind should watch for thickening haze, sulfur odor, and reports of ashfall or Pele’s hair. Visitors should monitor official updates and air quality, as viewing areas may fill quickly and weather could obstruct views. HVO will assess the impact of Hurricane Lowell on summit instruments and restore any offline stations.