Kīlauea Summit Unrest: New Vents Open as Pressurization Defies Forecast

Key points

• New fissures opened on the northwest wall of Halemaʻumaʻu crater on September 14, 2026, north of the established vent complex.
• The new vents are located approximately 150 feet (45 meters) below the level of the north vent and have produced pāhoehoe lava flows.
• The summit has been in a prolonged state of precursory activity since September 7, with 104 small lava overflows recorded between September 7 and 12.
• The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory states that the summit remains highly pressurized, but it is unclear if this will lead to a fountaining episode or continuous eruption.
• Seismic activity has increased, with nearly 100 earthquakes recorded since September 7, though most were smaller than magnitude 2.
• The volcano remains at a WATCH alert level with an ORANGE aviation color code, and no unusual activity has been detected in the Southwest or East Rift Zones.

Background

Kīlauea’s summit eruption began in late December 2024, with 54 episodes of lava fountaining occurring since then. Each episode was typically preceded by summit inflation and followed by rapid deflation. The current activity is part of a longer pattern of episodic eruptions at the summit, with the magma plumbing system remaining remarkably stable throughout most of the eruption.

How outlets are covering it

The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory emphasizes the uncertainty of the current situation, noting that the outcome of the increased pressurization is unknown. They outline several possible scenarios, including continuous eruption at the new vents, a return to fountaining, or the formation of new vents in the summit region. Big Island Video News highlights the prolonged precursory activity and the new vents opening without significant seismicity. Hawaii News Now focuses on the number of new vents and the continued spatter bursts from the north vent. GK Today notes the unusual behavior of the volcano, which defied previous forecasting based on inflation patterns.

Why it matters

The ongoing activity at Kīlauea’s summit is significant because it demonstrates the dynamic nature of volcanic systems and the challenges in predicting their behavior. The new vents and prolonged precursory activity indicate that the magma plumbing system is responding to increased pressurization in ways that are not fully understood. This has implications for monitoring and forecasting future volcanic activity, as well as for the safety of the surrounding area.

What to watch

The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory will continue to monitor Kīlauea’s summit region with a dense network of instruments, including seismic activity, ground deformation, visual and thermal imagery, and volcanic gas emissions. They will issue additional messages as needed based on any significant changes detected. The outcome of the current activity remains uncertain, and the USGS will continue to provide updates as the situation evolves.