Rocket launch costs plummet 96% since 1960, possibly dropping to $300 per kg by 2040
TL;DR Summary
A study analyzing 4,405 rocket launches from 1960–2025 finds the real-terms average cost to send 1 kg to orbit fell 96% (from $87,023 in 1960 to $3,868 in 2025). The drop is linked to post–Cold War shifts to commercial space and rapid gains in reusable-rocket tech, led by SpaceX’s Falcon 9. If current learning rates continue, launch costs could reach about $1,600 per kg by 2030 and $300 per kg by 2040, though challenges such as space debris, the risk of a monopoly, and geopolitical tensions could slow progress.
- Rocket launch costs have dropped 96% since 1960. How low can they go? Space
- Space Launch Costs Have Fallen 96% Since 1960. They Aren’t Done Yet. SingularityHub
- In July 2026, Cambridge economist Alessio Terzi and colleagues published the largest launch-cost dataset ever assembled — 4,400 rockets flown since 1960 — and projected that the price of putting a kilogram into orbit will fall from $3,868 last year to $273 by Space Daily
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- New Study Expects Space Cargo Launch Costs to Fall by 50 Percent by 2030 Mobility Engineering Technology
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