
Rocket launch costs plummet 96% since 1960, possibly dropping to $300 per kg by 2040
A study analyzing 4,405 rocket launches from 1960–2025 finds the real-terms average cost to send 1 kg to orbit fell 96% (from $87,023 in 1960 to $3,868 in 2025). The drop is linked to post–Cold War shifts to commercial space and rapid gains in reusable-rocket tech, led by SpaceX’s Falcon 9. If current learning rates continue, launch costs could reach about $1,600 per kg by 2030 and $300 per kg by 2040, though challenges such as space debris, the risk of a monopoly, and geopolitical tensions could slow progress.





