El Niño May Dampen Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026, NOAA Forecasts

NOAA forecasts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, with a 55% chance of below-normal activity and 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes, largely due to a developing El Niño that increases upper-atmosphere wind shear even as sea temperatures remain warm. Forecasters caution that even in a quiet season, a single major hurricane can cause severe damage, and CSU's separate forecast also signals below-active activity. The season runs June 1 to November 30.