Northeast Snow and Cold Snap to Fade Before Mild Thanksgiving Week

Key points

• The current cold snap, which has brought lows in the 20s and 30s and over a foot of snow to parts of New York, is forecast to fade by mid-November.
• NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts widespread above-average temperatures east of the Rockies by November 20, with the Far West remaining cooler.
• Meteorologist Anthony Artusa of the Climate Prediction Center states that most of the country will see above-average temperatures during Thanksgiving week, though not record-breaking warmth.
• An exception to the mild pattern is the southern Plains, where Oklahoma and Texas could experience their first freeze of the season during the holiday week.
• AccuWeather forecasts rainy weather across the southern tier and California, with snow at higher western elevations, while the Northeast and Midwest are expected to remain mostly dry.

Background

This forecast follows a period of significant weather volatility in 2026, including a record-strength El Niño and a strong polar vortex that shaped the winter outlook. Earlier in the year, Colorado experienced significant snowfall in October, and California faced high flood risks and uncertain rainfall due to the El Niño. The current cold snap represents a temporary deviation from the broader mild trend predicted for the season.

How outlets are covering it

Outlets generally agree that the current cold snap is temporary and that a mild pattern will dominate Thanksgiving week. USA TODAY and NOAA emphasize the widespread above-average temperatures east of the Rockies, while AccuWeather highlights specific regional risks, such as rain in the South and snow in the West. Yahoo notes that a significant storm forming over the Rockies late next week could bring a cold front and showers into the East early in the Thanksgiving week, potentially disrupting the dry pattern. South Florida Reporter focuses on the sharp contrast between the current wintry conditions and the upcoming dry, warm stretch, noting that the dry spell may not last through Thanksgiving. All sources agree that while major travel disruptions are unlikely, some regional weather issues, such as rain and thunderstorms in the South, could affect travel plans.

Why it matters

The forecast is crucial for millions of Americans planning Thanksgiving travel and gatherings. The shift from cold, snowy conditions to mild, dry weather in the Northeast and Midwest could ease travel disruptions and allow for outdoor activities. However, the potential for rain and thunderstorms in the South, and the first freeze of the season in the southern Plains, could impact agricultural operations and travel routes. The forecast also highlights the importance of monitoring weather patterns for potential travel disruptions, as even a mild week can have regional variations that affect plans.

What to watch

Forecasters will continue to monitor the development of a storm over the Rockies late next week, which could bring a cold front and showers into the East early in the Thanksgiving week. AccuWeather plans to release a more detailed early look at Thanksgiving travel conditions on November 17. The focus will be on whether the cold front will stall and initiate a storm with rain and snow in part of the East around Thanksgiving, potentially disrupting the otherwise mild pattern. Travelers should stay updated on weather forecasts and be prepared for potential regional weather issues, such as rain and thunderstorms in the South and snow in the West.