Record El Niño Drives 2026 Toward Tying Hottest Year on Record

Key points

• September 2026 ranked as the second-warmest globally, with average surface air temperatures 1.63°C above pre-industrial levels.
• The contiguous United States recorded its warmest September on record, with 13 states setting all-time highs.
• A 'super' El Niño is intensifying, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region reaching an all-time high of 29.70°C.
• NOAA projects a greater than 99.9% chance that 2026 will be among the three warmest years, though 2027 is likely to be hotter due to El Niño lag effects.

Background

This follows a record-breaking summer in the U.S. and ongoing coral bleaching linked to the same El Niño event. Earlier reports indicated the 2026 summer was the hottest on record for the contiguous U.S., with persistent heat domes and drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin.

How outlets are covering it

Copernicus and NOAA both confirm September 2026 as the second-warmest globally, behind 2023. However, they differ on the final annual ranking: NOAA’s statistical model gives only a 0.1% chance of 2026 being the hottest year, while climate scientist Zeke Hausfather and NASA project it will rank first or second, with 2027 likely to break records due to El Niño’s delayed heat release. Yale Climate Connections emphasizes the unprecedented spatial footprint of record temperatures, covering 16.7% of Earth’s surface, the largest since 1951.

Why it matters

The intensifying El Niño threatens to push global temperatures further above the 1.5°C pre-industrial threshold, exacerbating extreme weather, droughts, and marine heatwaves. The potential for 2027 to become the warmest year on record underscores the accelerating impact of climate change on global stability and infrastructure.

What to watch

El Niño is expected to peak by late 2026 and persist until at least February 2027. NOAA forecasts a high probability of a 'very strong' El Niño event, which could lead to a wetter winter in the southern U.S. and drier conditions in the Midwest. A subsequent La Niña is likely in 2027-28.