Hormuz Closure Could Push Global Economy Toward Recession, Analysts Warn

With the Strait of Hormuz potentially shut and Iran signaling attacks on passing ships, oil and commodity supplies face disruption, sending prices higher and risking a stagflationary drag that could slow or derail growth in major economies—especially Europe and East Asia. Goldman Sachs models project higher U.S. inflation and weaker GDP if prices stay elevated, while extreme Oxford Economics scenarios imply contractions in the eurozone, UK, and Japan and a global GDP hit around 0.7% with inflation near 5%.