El Niño Could Stretch to 2028 as Heat Records Persist, UN Warns

The UN climate projections from the WMO and UK Met Office warn that a strong El Niño could linger into 2027–2028, boosting global temperatures and making it likely that the 2026–2030 period will exceed the Paris 1.5°C threshold. There’s a 91% chance at least one year will surpass 1.5°C and an 86% chance a year will break the 2024 hottest-year record, with Arctic warming about 3.5 times faster than the global average. The report also foresees shrinking Arctic sea ice, hotter and drier Amazon conditions with higher wildfire risk, potential rainfall increases but flood risk in the Sahel, and record heat events in Europe, underscoring that every 0.1°C of warming raises impacts and the need to curb fossil fuels.